That is not a cynical reading, it is how these decisions actually get made. Delivery is what makes you promotable. It is rarely the thing that gets you promoted.

29 votes in so far, with the poll open until 5pm today. The room splits like this: 41% moved company to get the step up, 38% had someone senior back them and make the case, 7% delivered something visible and asked for it, 14% stepped up because the person above them left.

Three things worth taking from that.

1. Delivering is the entry ticket, not the argument. Everyone on a promotion list has delivered something. What separates the person who gets it is that a decision maker can describe their work in one sentence without being briefed first. If nobody above you could explain your last scheme, your record is not doing the job you think it is.

2. A backer is a structure, not a favour. The people who had someone senior argue for them did not get lucky. They made themselves easy to argue for: clear numbers, a scheme with their fingerprints on it, no noise around them. Work out who actually sits in the decision, then make sure that person sees the work and not just the outcome.

3. Moving is the market pricing you properly. The largest group left to get the step up, and I would not call that disloyalty. It is what usually happens when the seat above you is occupied and nobody has told you the plan. Before you start looking, ask the plain question: what would have to be true for me to do that job here, and by when. A straight answer is worth staying for. A vague one is your answer.

If you run a business, read the poll backwards. Every leader who moved for a step up was somebody's retention problem first, and the group who stepped up when the person above them left were less promoted than available. Succession nobody has been told about is not succession.

After more than twenty years of watching these decisions from the outside, my honest view is this. The people who go up fastest are not the strongest operators in the business. They are good operators whose work is legible to the person signing it off. That is a learnable skill, and it has more to do with how you report than how hard you work.

The poll is open until 5pm today, and the thread stays open after that. If yours was a fifth answer, put it in the replies, and if the longer version of it would help someone earlier in their career, that is what the Exchange is for.