A contract worth more than 112 million for affordable housing, signed this month, tells you more about the next hiring cycle than any jobs report.

When a tier-one signs a nine-figure residential package, the recruitment follows on a predictable lag. First the bid team, then the commercial leads, then the programme and operations directors who have to deliver it.

The affordable and build-to-rent end of housing has been quietly busy while the for-sale market stayed cautious. Development arms of the large housing associations are placing serious work with main contractors, and that work needs senior people who can run residential at volume.

This is a different skill set from commercial offices or infrastructure. Tight margins, repeatable units, a client who cares as much about long-term stewardship as handover. The leaders who thrive here are not always the obvious names from the trophy projects.

If you run a contractor moving into this space, start the leadership conversations now, not when the programme starts. The best residential operators are being approached already. By the time the award is public, the shortlist has usually moved.

Contracts are a lagging indicator of optimism and a leading indicator of hiring. Read them that way.