A sharper fall, a weaker bounce back

The Construction Products Association has downgraded its outlook for the sector again. Construction Enquirer reported this week that the CPA now expects UK construction output to fall 4% in 2026, worse than the 3.3% drop it pencilled in over the summer. The 2027 recovery has been cut by two thirds too, down to a feeble 0.4% growth, as renewed conflict in the Middle East and higher oil and energy prices push up inflation and keep borrowing costs higher for longer than hoped.

Private housing takes the brunt of it. The CPA expects private housing output to tumble 10% this year and fall a further 3% in 2027, as weaker buyer demand and rising build costs squeeze housebuilders from both sides. Home improvement work is in the same position, down again for a second year running.

Infrastructure is the one bright spot

Set against that, infrastructure keeps growing, with the CPA trimming but not cutting its forecast to 2.5% this year and 2.9% in 2027. That gap between a shrinking housing market and a still expanding infrastructure pipeline is the real story here. It is not a uniform downturn. It is a sector splitting in two, with some parts of construction still hiring hard while others retrench.

What it means for your career

If you are commercial, QS or project management staff sitting inside a volume housebuilder or a residential led contractor, this is the forecast that should make you look at your employer's order book, not just its share price. A 10% fall in output this year, with another 3% to come, is the kind of number that precedes headcount reviews. Worth asking now, quietly, how exposed your current role is to private housing specifically, rather than the group's overall turnover.

On the other side, water, rail, energy and nuclear programmes are the parts of the market still recruiting commercial and delivery staff at pace, and this forecast is one more reason that gap will widen rather than close. If your CV reads housebuilding, this is a reasonable moment to start building the case, in interviews and on paper, for why your estimating, surveying or planning skills transfer to a framework or infrastructure client. If you already sit in infrastructure, the message is simpler: your patch looks more secure than most of the market for at least another year, and employers there know it, which is why those roles are proving harder to fill and better paid than they were twelve months ago.

Regionally, this also reinforces why the Midlands, the North West and anywhere with a live infrastructure programme (rail, water, nuclear) will keep outperforming housing heavy regions for commercial and site management vacancies through 2027.